Debt to GDP Alarm Bells Ring, Neither Party Will Solve This | MishTalk

Debt-to-GDP image from the Congressional Budget Office, annotations by Mish.

Within a few years the debt-to-GDP ratio of the US will topple highs set in WWII. This time, there will not be a huge baby boomer led recovery.

Deficit Set to More Than Double from 2022

10-month budget totals for Fiscal Year 2023 from the CBO.

The above image is from the CBO Monthly Budget Review: July 2023

The federal budget deficit was $1.6 trillion in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2023, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—more than twice the shortfall recorded during the same period last year. Revenues were 10 percent lower and outlays were 10 percent higher from October through July than they were during the same period in fiscal year 2022.

Outlays in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2023 were $5.3 trillion, $473 billion (or 10 percent) more than during the same period last year, CBO estimates. If not for the shifts in the timing of certain payments, outlays so far in fiscal year 2023 would have been $536 billion (or 11 percent) more than during the same period in fiscal year 2022.

The lead chart and discussion that follows are from the 64 page 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook of the CBO.



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